home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
The Arsenal Files 6
/
The Arsenal Files 6 (Arsenal Computer).ISO
/
health
/
med9605a.zip
/
M9650386.TXT
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
1996-03-09
|
3KB
|
42 lines
Document 0386
DOCN M9650386
TI How many HIV infections are there in Israel? Reconstructing HIV
incidence from AIDS case reporting.
DT 9605
AU Kaplan EH; Slater PE; Soskolne V; Hebrew University-Hadassah Braun
School of Public Health and; Community Medicine, Jerusalem, Israel.
SO Public Health Rev. 1995;23(3):215-35. Unique Identifier : AIDSLINE
MED/96137686
AB BACKGROUND: The reporting of AIDS cases to Israel's Ministry of Health
is believed to be accurate, but the completeness of HIV surveillance is
unknown. We implement a model that reconstructs HIV incidence in Israel
from AIDS case reports excluding Ethiopian immigrants. METHODS: We apply
the well-known method of backcalculation to AIDS cases reported to the
Ministry of Health. The data are adjusted statistically to account for
reporting delays and the elimination of AIDS Related Complex reporting.
The analysis also accounts for the impact of differential administration
of antiretroviral therapy to HIV-infected persons over time. RESULTS:
Excluding Ethiopian immigrants, we find that the cumulative number of
HIV infections reported to the Ministry of Health through December 1993
(1,011) is not statistically different from the model's estimate of 922
(z = 1.04; p = 0.30), though the reported number of new infections in
recent years exceeds the modeleted rate. CONCLUSIONS: The low HIV
incidence estimated among non-Ethiopian Israelis is consistent with
other studies of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV-related risky
behavior in Israel. This result counters the hypothesis that an
explosive HIV epidemic will occur. That the number of recently reported
new infections exceeds the estimate from the model could indicate that
the reporting system is catching up with the extant spread of disease,
or that the model is missing some aspect of the dynamics of HIV in
Israel. We suggest that comparing future annual HIV incidence rates to
the model's upper bound of 80 infections per year will enable resolution
of this issue over time.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY Disease Notification
Ethiopia/ETHNOLOGY Forecasting Human HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY
Incidence Israel/EPIDEMIOLOGY Models, Statistical Support, Non-U.S.
Gov't JOURNAL ARTICLE
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).